“We have seen an impressive rally in gold prices and were fortunate to be part of the uptrend since 2019,” said MOWM, adding that said some kind of “market fatigue” has begun to appear at these higher levels
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The six-year rally in gold, which has bedazzled the investment community with over 30 per cent returns each in 2024 and 2025, is perhaps over, at least two commodity research firms have said.
In a note, “Gold bull run: We call it quits”, Mumbai-based Motilal Oswal Wealth Management (MOWM) said “several drivers” have fuelled the current rally in gold, and they are already “reflected in prices”.
“The rally is over for now,” research agency BMI — a unit of Fitch Solutions — said in a commentary, though ruling out any quick collapse yet.
“We have seen an impressive rally in gold prices and were fortunate to be part of the uptrend since 2019,” said MOWM.
Price outlook
BMI said: “We maintain our 2025 gold price forecast at an annual average of $3,100/oz (ounce), and are neutral towards prices for the coming months.”
Last month, JP Morgan Research of the US said it expects gold prices to average $3,675/oz by the final quarter of 2025, rising toward $4,000/oz by the second quarter of 2026.
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan, said that gold will likely top $4,000 because of recession probabilities and ongoing trade and tariff risks. “We remain deeply convinced of a continued structural bull case for gold and raise our price targets accordingly,” Kaneva said.
On Wednesday, spot gold was quoted at $3,335.52 an ounce at 1200 hours IST. Gold August futures were quoted at $3345.35 an ounce. Gold, which topped a record $3,500 an ounce earlier this year, has gained nearly 27 per cent this year.
Topping forecasts
In India, on the Multi Commodity Exchange, the gold futures contract expiring in August was quoted at ₹97,101 per 10 gm. Spot gold in Mumbai was quoted at ₹97,260 per 10 gm against ₹97,430 on Tuesday.
BMI said gold prices have averaged $3,074/ounce in the year-to-date. Despite the spike in political risk in June (due to the Israel-US war against Iran), gold prices remained tepid. This was an indication of the geopolitical risk premia being mostly factored in since October 2023, when the latest strand of the Israel-Palestine conflict began.
“Following Israel’s attack on Iran on June 13, gold surged to a seven-week intraday high of $3,451/oz on June 16 (still not breaking historical highs of $3,500/oz reached in April 2025), only to retreat following the announcement of a ceasefire. We believe that only a full-blown regional war, which is unlikely at this stage, might push gold to levels upwards of $4,000/oz, if nothing changes,” the research agency said.
Pointing out that gold prices have exceeded its price projects since 2019, MOWM said some kind of “market fatigue” has begun to appear at these higher levels.
Need fresh legs
While the risk premium from geopolitical tensions has eased, trade-related uncertainties are subsiding. “For gold prices to advance further, the market now requires fresh, significant catalysts,” the Mumbai-based firm said.
MOWM said Comex gold has never gained more than 32 per cent in a year, going by historical data over the past 25 years. “…we need to wait for more clarity or a decisive trigger,” it said.
BMI said that gold is increasingly showing signs of desensitisation to a weaker US dollar, lower bond yields and geopolitical tensions. “We see rising downside risks that could bring gold prices back near $3,000/oz in the coming days,” it said.
MOWM said a period of consolidation might be appropriate, while BMI said the US Fed’s rate cut announcements later in 2025 and 2026 will likely hold the key to gold price increases going forward. “Additionally, we expect gold to continue benefiting from increased central bank purchases and uncertainty surrounding the Trump Administration’s trade policy shifts, which will place a floor under bullion, around the $2,800/oz level,” the research agency said.
In its outlook, JP Morgan said some investors have wondered who the major buyers of gold will be in 2025, given the current prices.
Published on July 2, 2025
