Why are gold prices falling as the dollar surges


Gold prices came under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday, with COMEX gold trading in the $4,300–$4,380 range — down roughly 1.5–2 per cent in early trading — as a strengthening dollar and retreating rate cut expectations outweighed safe-haven demand from the ongoing West Asia conflict.

The metal has shed nearly 19 per cent from record highs near $5,600 hit in late January, as macro headwinds increasingly overshadow geopolitical tailwinds. On the domestic front, MCX Gold opened gap-down but held above ₹1,36,000, with analysts placing immediate resistance at ₹1,39,000–₹1,40,000 and key support at ₹1,34,000–₹1,35,000.

JPMorgan described the selloff as part of a broader contagion. “This is an extremely brutal flush. But from our perspective, what it’s telling us is more about gold getting caught up in a contagion risk of a sell everything trade,” the bank said, while adding that a prolonged energy disruption could “quickly flip” the backdrop “materially bullish” for the metal.

Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead at VT Markets, attributed the correction to the paradox of war-driven inflation. “Geopolitical risk typically drives safe-haven demand, supporting gold in particular. However, the war has heightened concerns about energy supply disruptions, pushing oil prices higher and reinforcing inflation pressures,” he said, adding that this has strengthened the dollar and lifted real yields — both headwinds for gold.

Colin Shah, MD of Kama Jewelry, said the drop was a direct ripple effect of West Asia tensions. “The strengthening of the USD is also pushing investors away from investing into the yellow metal,” he noted, while maintaining that the long-term outlook remains positive.

Silver also remained under pressure, with COMEX silver holding above $64 in bearish territory and MCX Silver trading in the ₹2,15,000–₹2,20,000 range after a sharp gap-down. Analysts said a sustained move above $70 on COMEX is required for any meaningful bullish reversal.

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Published on March 24, 2026