Last week, precious metals posted gains after declining in the past several weeks. Gold ($4,176/ounce) and silver ($62.40/ounce) appreciated by 2.1 and 5.4 per cent respectively. Similarly, in the domestic market, gold futures (₹1,47,378/10 gm) was up 2.2 per cent and silver futures (₹2,37,410/kg) gained 6.2 per cent. Below is an analysis.
MCX-Gold (₹1,47,378)
Gold futures (Aug), after facing a decline in early last week, was quick to turn the path and moved up. It surpassed ₹1,45,000 and closed the week at ₹1,47,378.
The recovery may be nearing its end as the broader trend remains bearish and there are barriers at ₹1,48,200 (the 21-day moving average) and ₹1,50,000. A resumption in downtrend cannot be ruled out.
Once the fall resumes, the contract can drop to ₹1,40,000. However, if it breaks out of ₹1,50,000, expect the rally to extend to ₹1,54,000.
Trade strategy: Last week, we suggested buying gold futures at ₹1,44,000 with a stop-loss at ₹1,40,000. Retain this trade but revise the stop-loss up to ₹1,45,000. Also, since there are resistances ahead, we suggest exiting at ₹1,49,000 rather than waiting for our earlier suggested target of ₹1,50,000.
MCX-Silver (₹2,37,410)
Silver futures (Sep) outperformed gold futures last week. But it is now hovering around a notable hurdle at ₹2,40,000 where both 21- and 50-day moving averages coincide.
If the contract starts to fall again on the back of the resistance, it can slide to ₹2,15,000. Support below ₹2,15,000 is at ₹2,12,000.
In case the resistance at ₹2,40,000 is breached, silver futures can rally to ₹2,53,000. Resistance above ₹2,53,000 is at ₹2,58,000.
Trade strategy: Last week, we recommended buying silver futures at ₹2,23,400 with a stop-loss at ₹2,12,400 for a target of ₹2,40,000. Since the contract is facing a resistance ahead, consider exiting at the current level of ₹2,37,410.
Published on July 4, 2026
