The already stressed global silver market could be under further pressure from January 2026 as China has announced curbs on the export of the precious metal.
The new policy, which will be in force in 2027 too, also requires Chinese companies to get licences to export silver.
In another development, which points to high demand for physical silver, India imported over 2,600 tonnes of silver during September-October, with 1,715 tonnes entering the country in October alone.
Protecting national resources
Trade experts say the Chinese policy will allow only large, state-approved firms that produce at least 80 tonnes of silver per year to qualify for the licenses. The policy, aimed at protecting “national resources”, will prevent smaller exporters from shipping the precious metal.
According to the Silver Academy, which makes people aware of the precious metal’s role, China is the second‑largest silver miner in the world. It supplies 60–70 per cent of the white precious metal in the global market.
It said Beijing’s objective of the new policy could be to preserve silver for its industries such as solar panels and electronics, besides pushing up global silver prices and creating leverage over countries that depend on Chinese silver.
It could also use the precious metal as a geopolitical tool, similar to rare earth export limits, to put pressure on other countries.
JP Morgan takes control
The Academy warned that the controls will tighten the global silver market, which has already been in deficit for several years. The supply shortfall is projected at 2,500-plus tonnes annually.
“With less Chinese silver available, the global deficit could widen to 5,000-plus tonnes per year, pushing prices sharply higher,” it said.
In another crucial development, US multinational financial services firm JP Morgan closed its silver short positions on CME, running to 200 million ounces (6,750 tonnes) between June and October. It accumulated 750 million ounces (23,437 tonnes) of physical silver.
The situation comes at a time when the Royal Mint of Canada and the US have run out of silver coins and bars.
Meanwhile, the UK and Hong Kong turned into the biggest shippers of silver to India in September and October. The UK supplied a little over 1,000 tonnes, and Hong Kong over 880 tonnes during the period. Switzerland supplied 225 tonnes of silver, and the UAE over 140 tonnes.
3 reasons for the surge
Imports from Hong Kong are suspected to be silver leased by the London Bullion Merchants Association from China and shipped to India.
After soaring past $64 an ounce, silver ended at $62 during the weekend. Silver futures maturing in March ended at the same level. In India, silver March futures on MCX ended at ₹1,92,615 a kg.
Silver has gained nearly 115 per cent so far this year, against gold’s 64 per cent rise. Only Cobalt, which has increased by 117 per cent this year, has gained more.
Silver has surged on physical deficit, demand from the green energy sector and geopolitical crisis.
Published on December 14, 2025
