Gold touched a new record high and Treasuries held their gains as concerns mounted over a US government shutdown.
The precious metal, a traditional safe-haven asset, climbed above $3,839 an ounce. The commodity’s 46 per cent rise so far this year is poised to be the best annual gain since 1979. Treasuries were little changed Tuesday after gaining across the curve in the prior session. A gauge of the dollar edged up after President Donald Trump set a 10 per cent tariff on softwood timber and lumber imports into the US.
Asian shares rose 0.2 per cent and are poised for a sixth consecutive month of gains, the longest winning streak since 2018. Zijin Gold International Co. surged 66 per cent in its Hong Kong trading debut, while greater China shares more broadly fluctuated. Chinese equities are set for their best run of monthly gains in seven years.
Vice President JD Vance said he believes the US government is on track to shut down after Trump’s last-ditch meeting with top congressional leaders ahead of the Oct. 1 deadline ended without resolving Democrats’ demands.
Investors remain concerned that a shutdown could hinder some crucial data releases that they require to discern how the US economy is doing. That includes Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which would offer details on how the labor market is holding up and help the Federal Reserve decide on the path for rate cuts.
“Given the importance of the job market to the Fed’s rate-cutting decisions, risk that the September unemployment report could be delayed could add to the market’s anxiety over the direction of policy,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab & Co.
Emerging-market assets climbed to start the week as the looming risk of a shutdown weighed on the dollar. The US Treasury 10-year yield declined to 4.14 per cent — shutdowns are typically associated with gains for bonds because of their potential to restrain the economy.
Still, markets are not rushing to retrench risk after various episodes of US shutdown threats previously, Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Securities in Singapore, wrote in a note.
“For one, experience provides some consolation of narrowly averting shutdowns or at least disaster from previous episodes,” he wrote. “Crucially, markets fully expect that dysfunctional bipartisan dynamics will necessarily accentuate political brinksmanship.”
What Bloomberg strategists say…
To some extent gold’s gains slid under the radar because record highs for the precious metal are so common now as to be completely passe. But Monday’s 2 per cent surge from already elevated levels does speak to a degree of angst about the risk for the shutdown to deliver a fresh bout of turmoil. That also boosts the potential for gold to drop sharply should America avoid a shutdown.
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Published on September 30, 2025
